Wednesday, June 4, 2008

The Finals!

So the Finals matchup that everyone (well not everyone) wanted is going to happen. The Los Angeles Lakers versus The Boston Celtics. I can't imagine how happy David Stern is right now. These two teams are the marquee NBA franchises as they have 30 of the 61 NBA titles - Boston with 16 and Los Angeles with 14. They have had some classic battles in the playoffs and boast some of the greatest players of all-time - Russell, Bird, Chamberlain, Magic, Kareem, West, McHale...the list could go on and on. But none of that history matters now. The only things that matter are how the teams have played so far in the playoffs and how they match up against each other.

Los Angeles Lakers (12-3 in the playoffs, +6.4 differential)

The Lakers have simply been dominant these playoffs. They have only lost 3 games in rolling through what was supposed to be one of the toughest Western Conferences ever. They swept Denver easily, took Utah's best shot and closed them out in 6, and finished off the defending champs in 5. They have won in many different fashions. They have come back from big early deficits, they have led wire-to-wire in solid victories, they have blown teams out, and they have held off teams. They have won the high-scoring up and down games and they have won the slow-down slug fests. Although they are a young team they do have veteran championship leadership and a coach with 9 rings. They also have the best player in basketball. Kobe is on a mission and playing some of the best basketball of his career. The Lakers have had the best and most diverse offense in the playoffs. And their large frontline and overall team length and quickness has allowed them to play solid defense. The only thing the team seems to be lacking is a physical 5 man who's job is to rebound and play defense (and no DJ Mbenga doesn't count).


Boston Celtics (12-8, +4.3)


The Boston Celtics have been an enigma these playoffs. They looked very vulnerable in their first two series - dragged to 7 games by both Atlanta and Cleveland. Then after they lost Game 2 at home to Detroit they looked very vulnerable because their home dominance had ended and they still had yet to win a game on the road. Then they went a played their best game of the playoffs and won Game 3 in Detroit and ended up winning Game 6 there as well to finish the series. They looked a lot better against Detroit than they did the first two series but I still think they have a lot of flaws. Simply put, they are an average offense at best. It is rare when the Big 3 click at the same time and they have some offensive droughts at time. Also, it seems that Doc still doesn't know what his best rotation said. All in all, they only need 4 more wins for a title and they have home-court advantage to try to do it.

Match-Ups

PG - Fisher vs Rondo

I think the old man gets the advantage over the young guy. Fisher has championship experience and is very smart. Rondo has an obvious quickness advantage but if Fish can do a decent job on Tony P I'm sure Rondo won't cause too many problems. Also, Rondo likes to roam on defense sometimes which can be problematic b/c Fisher can and will knock down open jumpers

Solid Edge - Lakers

SG - Kobe vs Ray Ray

Even with Ray Allen starting to come back to life this match-up still isn't close. Kobe is MVP and the best player in the league and Allen hasn't played at an all-star level in these playoffs. Allen is going to need a lot of help to guard him. As long as Kobe doesn't roam too much he should be able to do a decent job on Allen.

Significant Edge - Lakers

SF - Vlad Rad vs Pierce

Another easy match-up to call. Pierce is an all-star and Vlad wouldn't even be starting if the Lakers were healthy. Pierce has gone off at times in the playoffs but Vlad's length (6'10) and decent quickness should allow him to not get abused too badly as long as he has some help. If Pierce loses focus Vlad will knock down open shots.

Significant Edge - Celtics

PF - LO (Dey Know Dey Know) vs The Big Ticket

It's good that KG doesn't like to dominate down low a lot because I'm not sure if Odom could handle him down there consistently. Still KG is a fierce competitor who is a great defender and rebounder and he could cause some problems for Odom.

Significant Edge - Celtics



C - Pauuuu vs Perkins


Perkins has played better recently but it's clear he's no Gasol. This is another match-up that's not close. KG might have to switch onto Gasol because he might be too quick and long for KP. I'm not sure if Perkins is going to be able to handle all the things Gasol can do out of the high post. Perkins should able to have some decent rebounding games as he is more physical than Gasol.

Significant Edge - Lakers



Bench - Farmar, The Machine, Turiaf, Luuuuke vs Posey, PJ Brown, Eddie House, Sam I Am

The Lakers' superior depth is one of the primary reasons a lot of people are picking them over the Celtics. IMO their bench is significantly stronger. They have much better guards coming off the bench and they have comparable big men.

Significant Edge - Lakers



Coach - Phil vs Doc


9 rings versus 1st finals appearance. Calmness and strength vs not having a set playoff rotation. I don't think I need to delve into this match-up much.

Significant Edge - Lakers

Given that the Lakers have edges at 3 out of the 5 positions, the bench, and the coach I would be surprised if they didn't win this series. Given that they have the best player in the league in Kobe I would be surprised if this series went 7. Lakers in 6

1 comment:

Unknown said...

I know it's only been one game, but your predictions seems way off right now... The Lakers had better bounce back in Game #2.

It was a great game though. I hope all of them are like this. Competitive throughout.