The Finals!

So the Finals matchup that everyone (well not everyone) wanted is going to happen. The Los Angeles Lakers versus The Boston Celtics. I can't imagine how happy David Stern is right now. These two teams are the marquee NBA franchises as they have 30 of the 61 NBA titles - Boston with 16 and Los Angeles with 14. They have had some classic battles in the playoffs and boast some of the greatest players of all-time - Russell, Bird, Chamberlain, Magic, Kareem, West, McHale...the list could go on and on. But none of that history matters now. The only things that matter are how the teams have played so far in the playoffs and how they match up against each other.

Los Angeles Lakers (12-3 in the playoffs, +6.4 differential)

The Lakers have simply been dominant these playoffs. They have only lost 3 games in rolling through what was supposed to be one of the toughest Western Conferences ever. They swept Denver easily, took Utah's best shot and closed them out in 6, and finished off the defending champs in 5. They have won in many different fashions. They have come back from big early deficits, they have led wire-to-wire in solid victories, they have blown teams out, and they have held off teams. They have won the high-scoring up and down games and they have won the slow-down slug fests. Although they are a young team they do have veteran championship leadership and a coach with 9 rings. They also have the best player in basketball. Kobe is on a mission and playing some of the best basketball of his career. The Lakers have had the best and most diverse offense in the playoffs. And their large frontline and overall team length and quickness has allowed them to play solid defense. The only thing the team seems to be lacking is a physical 5 man who's job is to rebound and play defense (and no DJ Mbenga doesn't count).


Boston Celtics (12-8, +4.3)

The Boston Celtics have been an enigma these playoffs. They looked very vulnerable in their first two series - dragged to 7 games by both Atlanta and Cleveland. Then after they lost Game 2 at home to Detroit they looked very vulnerable because their home dominance had ended and they still had yet to win a game on the road. Then they went a played their best game of the playoffs and won Game 3 in Detroit and ended up winning Game 6 there as well to finish the series. They looked a lot better against Detroit than they did the first two series but I still think they have a lot of flaws. Simply put, they are an average offense at best. It is rare when the Big 3 click at the same time and they have some offensive droughts at time. Also, it seems that Doc still doesn't know what his best rotation said. All in all, they only need 4 more wins for a title and they have home-court advantage to try to do it.

Match-Ups

PG - Fisher vs Rondo

I think the old man gets the advantage over the young guy. Fisher has championship experience and is very smart. Rondo has an obvious quickness advantage but if Fish can do a decent job on Tony P I'm sure Rondo won't cause too many problems. Also, Rondo likes to roam on defense sometimes which can be problematic b/c Fisher can and will knock down open jumpers

Solid Edge - Lakers

SG - Kobe vs Ray Ray

Even with Ray Allen starting to come back to life this match-up still isn't close. Kobe is MVP and the best player in the league and Allen hasn't played at an all-star level in these playoffs. Allen is going to need a lot of help to guard him. As long as Kobe doesn't roam too much he should be able to do a decent job on Allen.

Significant Edge - Lakers

SF - Vlad Rad vs Pierce

Another easy match-up to call. Pierce is an all-star and Vlad wouldn't even be starting if the Lakers were healthy. Pierce has gone off at times in the playoffs but Vlad's length (6'10) and decent quickness should allow him to not get abused too badly as long as he has some help. If Pierce loses focus Vlad will knock down open shots.

Significant Edge - Celtics

PF - LO (Dey Know Dey Know) vs The Big Ticket

It's good that KG doesn't like to dominate down low a lot because I'm not sure if Odom could handle him down there consistently. Still KG is a fierce competitor who is a great defender and rebounder and he could cause some problems for Odom.

Significant Edge - Celtics



C - Pauuuu vs Perkins

Perkins has played better recently but it's clear he's no Gasol. This is another match-up that's not close. KG might have to switch onto Gasol because he might be too quick and long for KP. I'm not sure if Perkins is going to be able to handle all the things Gasol can do out of the high post. Perkins should able to have some decent rebounding games as he is more physical than Gasol.

Significant Edge - Lakers



Bench - Farmar, The Machine, Turiaf, Luuuuke vs Posey, PJ Brown, Eddie House, Sam I Am

The Lakers' superior depth is one of the primary reasons a lot of people are picking them over the Celtics. IMO their bench is significantly stronger. They have much better guards coming off the bench and they have comparable big men.

Significant Edge - Lakers



Coach - Phil vs Doc

9 rings versus 1st finals appearance. Calmness and strength vs not having a set playoff rotation. I don't think I need to delve into this match-up much.

Significant Edge - Lakers

Given that the Lakers have edges at 3 out of the 5 positions, the bench, and the coach I would be surprised if they didn't win this series. Given that they have the best player in the league in Kobe I would be surprised if this series went 7. Lakers in 6

Western Conference Finals

Los Angeles Lakers (4-2 over Jazz) vs San Antonio Spurs (4-3 over Hornets)

A Rivalry Renewed....

These two franchises have locked horns more than a few times in the playoffs over the past 10 years. The Spurs swept the Lakers before the Lakers went on their three-peat run where they beat the Spurs in their last two championship runs. The Spurs then ended the Lakers three-peat and then Lakers returned the favor and prevented the Spurs from repeating the following year. Although many of the faces have changed the teams still know each other very well and it should be a great great series. I get chills thinking about all the memorable moments between these teams

The Lakers have yet to be seriously challenged in the playoffs. They swept a Denver team who didn't really show up and then took Utah's best shot without being seriously challenged. I think the physicality and offensive precision of Utah will have the Lakers ready for the tough veteran Spurs.

The Spurs dispatched the Suns rather easily in the 1st round and then were dragged to the limit by the pesky young Hornets. The Spurs have showed they can win high-scoring or low-scoring games which the Lakers have not shown yet. The Hornets' quickness and athleticism will prepare them for the Lakers.

Key Questions
- will Kobe continue to trust his teammates after they go through some struggles against a good defensive team? Bowen and Udoka are solid individual defenders and Duncan is still a great help defender. Kobe has to play very smart this series. He has had a great playoff run so far but he can't get stubborn especially if his back flares up

- will the Lakers be able to rebound better? The Jazz pushed around the Lakers a little bit but they were able to overcome that because of great offense and solid defense. They shouldn't count on the same happening against the Spurs if they don't rebound better

- will the Spurs be able to score enough points? The Spurs are not a great offensive team especially if you can run them off the 3 point line. The Lakers are not a great defensive team but they are quick and long which can cause the Spurs problems. Vlad, Odom, and Gasol is a very long frontline. Also if the Spurs let the Lakers speed it up at all then this will be a quick series

Prediction
This should be a wonderful and entertaining series. With what has happened the first two rounds I think everyone would agree these are the two best teams in the West. The Spurs may have the pedigree and experience but I think the Lakers will ultimately take this series because they are more versatile offensively, they have the MVP and most talented player in the league, and a better bench. Kobe is so determined to show he can win without Shaq and now that he has legit weapons around him he is nearly unstoppable. Lakers in 7

Onto the 2nd Round

It's funny that out all of the supposed competitive series the NBA had in the 1st round that the only one that is going 7 is the Celtics and Hawks. Can the Hawks pull off the biggest upset ever? I don't think so but hey I didn't think they would win a game. The last conference semifinal prediction will come Sunday or Monday after that Game 7.

I believe the 2nd round this year is due for some memorable moments like the one above (Fisher 0.4). Onto the predictions.

Eastern Semifinals

1st round performance in parenthesis
2. Detroit Pistons (4-2 over Sixers) vs 3. Orlando Magic (4-1 over Raptors)

This is a very interesting series. Detroit seemed to wake up during halftime of Game 4 and completely dominated the Sixers from that point on. The Magic handled the Raptors with ease even though they didn't shoot the three well besides the 1st quarter of Game 1. The Magic are clearly a lot better than Philly but Philly only caused problems when the Pistons were sleeping. I think the Pistons will be more mentally prepared this series. Dwight Howard is going to cause a lot of problems for the Pistons especially if they don't double him. But the only two Magic players really having a good series are Howard and whoever Prince doesn't guard between Turkoglu and Lewis. The Pistons don't like the double and they will prevent the Magic from getting a lot of open 3's. I believe the Pistons' offensive versatility will be the key. If Billups gets everyone involved and the team moves the ball I don't believe the Magic can stop them defensively. The Magic also don't have someone like LeBron who can completely dominate from the perimeter inward and expose the Pistons' unwillingness to double team. The Pistons' arrogance could cost them a game or two but not the series. Pistons in 6

Western Semifinals

1. Los Angeles Lakers (4-0 over Nuggets) vs 4. Utah Jazz (4-2 over Rockets)

This could possibly the best series of the entire playoffs. Both teams have a lot of offensive firepower with some questions on the defensive end. Both teams run their offenses very efficiently. Utah has clear advantages at PG and PF with Deron and Boozer. Los Angeles has clear advantages at SG and C with The MVP and Gasol. SF could go either way as Kirilenko is known for his defense and Vlad Rad is known for his shooting. I believe the benches could be very important. Both teams bring scorers and bangers off the bench.

I believe there are a few keys to this series. Can the Lakers contain Deron Williams? They can't allow him to score at will and get others involved. They must guard the pick n roll well. Can Utah slow Kobe down at all? Kobe has torched them during the regular season even though they have some good defenders like Brewer and AK-47. Kobe is going to get his regardless but if they let him do it very efficiently then they are in trouble. I'll believe the Lakers having the best player in the series and homecourt advantage will lead to victory. Lakers in 7

2. New Orleans Hornets (4-1 over Mavs) vs 3. San Antonio Spurs (4-1 over Suns)

Both teams easily handled their first round opponents who had made major trades during the season. The Hornets simply outclassed the Mavs while the Spurs simply outexecuted the Suns. The Hornets showed that talent can trump playoff experience while the Spurs showed that you have to TAKE out the champs instead of expecting them to go away quietly. Although the Spurs have not repeated following a championship they have lost to the Shaq-Kobe Lakers in '04 and the Mavericks (who should have won the title) in 7 games in '06. In '00 Duncan missed their 1st round loss with an injury. It's safe to say that they will not go away quietly. I do believe the Hornets have the talent to take it away from them. I do not believe they are mentally ready to do so. I believe teams must experience tough playoff games along with some heartbreak before they are ready to defeat a great veteran team.

There are some great matchups. Cp3 is the best point guard in the game while Tony Parker might be the quickest. Neither is a great on the ball defender so I can see them both having ridiculous numbers. Duncan might the best power forward of all time but I can see Chandler and West doing a decent job on him. They also will not allow the pick and roll with Parker and Duncan to work as well as it did against the Suns. If I'm a Hornets fan I worry a lot about Ginobili. Neither Peterson nor Peja can guard him and I think he will be the X-factor. The Hornets have impressed me a lot this season but the Spurs are most definitely not the Mavs. Spurs in 6