The Playoffs are Here!

I'll save the best for last so I'll start with the East

1. Boston Celtics (66-16, +10.3) vs 8. Atlanta Hawks (37-45, -1.8)
season series: 3-0 Boston

I know the 1-8 upsets are possible (as evidenced by the Warriors last year) but the Hawks absolutely have no chance. The Celtics won the season series 3-0 with all victories coming by double digits. The Celtics play the best defense in the league and while the Hawks have been better offensively since the trade for Bibby, they are still not an elite offensive team. The Celtics have the two best players in the series in KG and Paul "The Truth" Pierce but there is an outside chance Joe Johnson, Bibby, Josh Smith and of course Josh Childress could steal a game but I don't think so. Celtics in 4


4. Cleveland Cavaliers (45-37, -0.4) vs 5. Washington Wizards (43-39, -0.3)
season series: tied 2-2

This is easily the most interesting Eastern Conference 1st round series. The Cavs have knocked out the Wizards in the first round the past two years. Two years ago in 6 games when the Wizards were healthy but couldn't guard LeBron and last year in 4 games when Arenas and Caron were hurt. The Wizards have been integrating Hibachi back into the lineup pretty well and the Cavs have been middling since the trade for Big Ben, Wally, and Delonte West. This is a very tough call. On paper the Wizards look better but I still don't trust their defense (19th in OPP FG%) and LeBron is simply a step (maybe even two) above Gilbert, Caron, or Jamison. I also don't think it was wise for Deshawn Stevenson to call LeBron overrated or for Gilbert to call out the entire Cavs team. Homecourt advantage is crucial and LeBron averages at least 30, 8, and 8 in this series. Cavs in 7.


2. Detroit Pistons (59-23, +7.4) vs 7. Philadelphia 76ers (40-42, +0.4)
season series: tied 2-2

This series is not interesting at all to me. Philly is a nice little story as most people expected them to be in the lottery this year but they're still not very good. If I can cross up Dalembert (true story) imagine what Billups and Co. are going to do hahaha. But seriously the Pistons are clearly the better team in every conceivable way. The Zoo Crew (their young players they bring off the bench) has been killin' recently so their starters are going to be rested too. Philly will be competitive in some of the games and I think they might be able to steal one. Pistons in 5

3. Orlando Magic (52-30, +5.5) vs 6. Toronto Raptors (41-41, +2.9)
season series: Orlando 2-1

This series has the potential to be very entertaining. Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh are some of the best big men the East has to offer. Both teams can score a lot of points by going inside to their big men and also outside to their shooters. Although Toronto hasn't played great down the stretch I believe momentum going into the playoffs is overrated. Toronto clearly has the better point guards - Ford and Calderon vs Nelson, Arroyo, and Dooling. That along with Howard's inability to create his own shot consistently will be the downfall of the Magic. The Magic are not a great home team so I expect Toronto have some success in Orlando. Raptors in 6

THE WEST

The Western teams are more evenly matched and will require some deeper analysis - brace yourself haha

1. Los Angeles Lakers (57-25, +7.3) vs 8. Denver Nuggets (50-32, +3.7)
season series: Los Angeles 3-0

Even if I wasn't a Laker fan this would be the easiest Western series to pick. The Lakers are clearly the better team. Although the Nuggets average more PPG, the Lakers are arguably the better offensive team because they have a higher FG%, higher 3FG%, and higher efficiency. The defense is not even up for discussion. Lakers are 20th in PPG allowed and Denver is 29th. Lakers are 6th in FG defense and Denver is 14th. Although Denver probably has the 2nd and 3rd best players in the series (AI and Melo after Kobe of course), the Lakers are more diverse offensively, better defensively, and have the best player on the planet. Denver doesn't seem disciplined or mature enough to overcome those things. Because Denver is great at home and AI has a lot of heart (even though he hates practice) - Lakers in 5

4. Utah Jazz (54-28, +6.9) vs 5. Houston Rockets (55-27, +4.7)
season series: Utah 2-1

This is a rematch of last year's 1st round series. Just like last year Utah is the 4 and Houston is the 5 but with homecourt advantage. But Houston is missing Yao even though they have had a record streak this year. Utah is better than what it was last year with the addition of Ashton Kutcher, uhh I mean Kyle Korver. Houston w/o Yao is better defensively (because Yao is slower than molasses on D) but significantly worse offensively. Players like Scola and Landry have been stepping up but Houston is still 21st in PPG and 20th in FG%. I don't think they have enough offense to match Utah (5th in PPG and 2nd in FG%). Utah has been terrible on the road this year (17-24) so that gives Houston a solid chance but I don't think they have enough weapons to keep up. Boozer, Deron, Okur, AK-47, etc. will be too much for T-mac to overcome without Yao. T-mac gets screwed once again. Jazz in 6

2. New Orleans Hornets (56-26, +5.3) vs 7. Dallas Mavericks (51-31, +4.5)
season series: tied 2-2

Usually the 2-7 matchup is a mismatch (see Detroit-Philly above). This however is a different story. The teams split their four meetings and are pretty similar in W-L record and point differential. Also they are similar in PPG and FG%. Dallas has the slightly better FG% defense and New Orleans shoots the three better. Because the teams are so evenly matched on paper a lot is going to be decided by matchups and intangibles. Kidd can't guard Chris Paul but in their game tonight, the Mavs found a way to get the ball out of his hands. The Hornets essentially have no playoff experience outside of Peja and they are a young team compared to the Mavs. The Mavs have seemed to regain their swagger with their trade for Jason Kidd. CP3 (legitimate MVP candidate) and David West (all-star) are sure to get theirs but I'm not sure who else is going to step up for the Hornets (Peja is not really known to be clutch). The Mavs' offensive versatility, veteran leadership, and regained "huevos grandes" lead them to victory. Mavs in 7

3. San Antonio Spurs (56-26, +4.8) vs 6. Phoenix Suns (55-27, +5.0)
season series: Suns 3-1

Saving the best for last. Talk about a ridiculous 3-6 matchup. The teams combined for 111 wins and although San Antonio has the better seed, Phoenix has the better differential. If Ali-Foreman was dubbed the Rumble in the Jungle I'm going to call this the Slugfest in the Southwest. Hopefully Horry doesn't go all Ronnie Lott again and ruin the integrity of the series. Thankfully, Tim Donaghy won't be on the sidelines for this one. I don't want to see players ejected and/or suspended but it would be cool for Steve Nash to be bloodied again. Ok enough with the side stories based off last year. There are two big changes. The Suns traded Marion and Banks for the Big Catcus aka The Real Superman aka Diesel aka the Big Aristotle aka Shaquille O'neal. Many people (including myself) ripped the trade when it happened but Shaq has seemed to find the Fountain of Youth (or Balco) in the desert. The Suns look a lot more prepared to do damage in the postseason than ever before. The other big change is that the Spurs simply haven't been as dominant as last year (highest pt differential in the league). Their veteran role players like Finley, Horry, and Barry have lost a step and are banged up. Duncan is still Duncan but he has fallen off some this year. Shaq has always bothered Duncan in the past and the Suns are 2-0 against the Spurs with Shaq. I do worry about how the Suns are going to matchup with both Parker and Manu w/o Marion but then again the Spurs can't match up with both Shaq and Amare. I can't see Phoenix winning game 7 in San Antonio so Suns in 6

If you don't agree with my predictions, remember I'm a doctor (at least a future one) so listen to what I say haha

Dr. Hoops